[ Diretor: Mário Frota [ Coordenador Editorial: José Carlos Fernandes Pereira [ Fundado em 30-11-1999 [ Edição III [ Ano XII

terça-feira, 12 de dezembro de 2017

Study: UK economy likely to suffer post-Brexit

Of all the scenarios analysed, only one replicated or even bettered the financial benefits of EU membership for the UK.

Only one of the eight presented options would see the UK economy better off than it is now: a trilateral UK-EU-US free trade agreement, which does not seem very likely.

Leaving the EU with no deal, which would mean reverting to basic World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules, would cause the greatest economic loss for the UK, the study said. The result would be a loss in GDP of nearly 5%, or $140 billion, in the ten years after Brexit, compared with the UK’s economic performance inside the EU.

Researchers at RAND have measured likely monetary changes in GDP growth, GDP per capita, trade and foreign direct investment for the UK, EU and US across the eight trade scenarios.

The scenarios include five ‘hard Brexit’ options: WTO rules, a free-trade UK-EU deal, a free trade UK-US-EU deal, a UK-US deal, and an extended transition period during which EU and UK tariffs do not change, but other non-tariff barriers emerge.


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